First, can you let me know how you got started compiling stats on NFL referees for NFL Ref Stats?
It really started by necessity. I make Vegas my home most of the year and I’d meet up with friends – Scott Kellen who runs Sixth Sense Sports and Bernie Fratto who’s on Fox Sports Radio. We’d meet up at the M Casino on Sundays at their sportsbook to watch games. We noted the refs and their impact on games but didn’t follow it that much. When calls were made we’d hear that is was good for the home team or the over-under, but that was about it. I wanted to learn more about the referees and how they called games.
I knew there were sites for baseball that covered the size of strike zones for umpires and figured there would be similar sites for NFL football refs, but there was nothing remotely close to what I was looking for. So I figured I’d start one on my own.
How did you get started?
I compiled all the data from a number of sites. I could see what crews were working what games and the penalties they called – there are a lot of stats across a number of sites but it’s all splintered – hard to get and compile.
Compiling all that data – it put it all into black and white. I sat on the information for years and didn’t do anything with it until gambling became legal nationwide. That changed things in terms of the public’s focus on officiating.
I am originally from Australia and later England – sports betting has been legal there forever. When you saw bad calls there across sports you could see the anger because of the impact it had on their betting, not just on winning and losing. So I knew when betting became legal across the country it was going to be a big thing. It’s one thing to be upset at a bad call because your favorite team lost. It’s another thing when you’re betting your mortgage on it!
What were some of the big discrepancies you noticed right off the bat?
One of the biggest was in the discrepancies in how some officiating crews favor the home team. Some crews favor them much more than others in terms of number of calls. That was the first thing I noticed.
Digging into the Steelers – generally, how do they rate versus the average in terms of how many penalties they get called every week?
The Steelers gave been really disciplined actually over the last few years – especially after Ben and AB left. Probably out of necessity – they can’t come back from penalties like they could before. The one thing they are negative versus league average on is on defensive holding. They are better than average otherwise. I think with the defensive holding that may go back to just the way they play. With their style of play you’ll have those.
It’s interesting because the Ravens are the most penalized team for defensive holding, and it’s been that way for a number of years. I think that’s by design. The average yards they give up per hold is very limited, so I think they play a lot like Seattle used to do when they were the Legion of Boom. They hold often rather than give up big plays and the refs get tired of calling it after a while.
On offense, the Steelers are below league average on offensive holding calls. But the way the offensive line has played, maybe they should hold more! In general, the Steelers really are one of the more disciplined teams overall in the NFL in terms of total penalties, through they did lead the NFL in unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in 2022.
Are there crews the Steelers perform best and worst under?
Over the long-term, the Steelers perform the best under Ron Torbert. They are 12-1 when he’s officiating, and 8-0 at home. He refereed the Steelers-Browns Monday night game recently.
The worst is Clete Blakeman – they haven’t had him yet this year but they are 5-12 when he officiates and 2-4 at home with that crew.
Any explanations for those records?
I can’t give an exact reason why. I looked at the last six games of Torbert’s and the Steelers were actually penalized more two out of those six games, so it wasn’t severe favoritism in terms of number of calls.
And with Blakeman there wasn’t big call number differentials either so I can’t pinpoint why.
Sometimes it’s not the overall number but timing and impact?
Absolutely – but that’s hard to quantify. You also can’t see what they didn’t call, but that’s much harder to measure without watching every game.
One reason for Torbert’s record may be that he has more of a “Let them play” style of officiating. 60% of his calls are on the offense – well above league average. That fits in with what the Steelers like to do on defense – he gives defenses more leeway.
Some refs get more ticky-tacky on defensive calls and that hurts teams like the Steelers. Alex Kemp is one of those – he calls an above average number of penalties on defenses which hurts physical defenses like the Steelers.
Are there trends with the Steelers’ division rivals as well that stand out?
The Ravens and defensive holding like I said before, and the Bengals. The Bengals are one of the most disciplined teams – one of the least penalized teams now since Burrow has been there.
Now Cleveland – they are a train wreck. They are all over the place very year in terms of their penalty profile. They have been in the top three in offensive holding in the past years, and with pass interference, they are ranked high this year, and I think they are above average on offensive holding this year again, though not terribly so. But pre-snap penalties have also been bad for them – they are above average there and that’s like a death of a thousand cuts for any team.
Across the NFL, who are the most disciplined teams?
The Rams and Bengals are the top two – and it’s no coincidence both are from the Sean McVay coaching tree. All of those coaches are very buttoned-up in terms of team discipline. Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota and Staley with the Chargers too.
How do people find your work?
I post it all on my Twitter handle: @nflrefstats1. I work with Sharp Football as well and he’ll get some inquiries for data from teams at times I think, but I don’t want it on a site for public consumption. I don’t want it out there for people to grab it and use it and take credit for it. I’d rather keep it and report on it myself!